Player Trade Value

There is often much debate between clubs, supporters and media experts about the value of players when it comes to a trade, in particular when a player is traded for a draft pick.

Is a player more or less valuable as they get closer to their peak?

What is potential worth?

Is a chance at a star player worth more than a very consistent player?

What we usually see on the trade table is big name players going for a couple of high first round picks. Last year Melbourne offered Adelaide pick 2 and pick 3 in the draft for star Patrick Dangerfield, which they probably wish they didn't reject now.

The thing is Patrick Dangerfield was a former pick 10 and is already half way through his career. Dangerfield is regarded in the top 10 players in the AFL but is still just one player in a 22 man team. As a result of the rejection from Adelaide, Melbourne managed to obtain the two best young midfielders available in the draft; Christian Petracca and Angus Brayshaw. While Petracca was unlucky and did his knee prior to the start of the season both players appear likely to become very good to elite players within a few years. Was Dangerfield really worth that much?

Let's take a look at draft history from 2004-2008 (As we can clearly see the results)

In 2004 pick 2 and pick 3 would have gained Jarryd Roughead and Ryan Griffen. Both All-Australians in their careers and both extremely good players that have been considered elite by many during their careers. It is unlikely anyone would trade these two for Patrick Dangerfield.

In 2005 it was a little different, Dale Thomas promised to be a superstar but injuries have run his career down, and Xavier Ellis never reached the heights of his pick 3 status despite winning a Premiership with Hawthorn.

In 2006 you would have taken Dangerfield any day because Scott Gumbleton struggled to stay fit and Lachie Hansen has never lived up to his pick 3 draft pick.

In 2007 it's a pretty easy call Trent Cotchin and Chris Masten on their own don't trump Dangerfield but together are far too valuable.

2008, the final year of review sees Nic Naitanui and Stephen Hill. NicNat is equally as valuable as Dangerfield while Stephen hill is the cream on the cake.

Overall the score would be about 3-2 in favour of keeping the draft picks so it is really a matter of reviewing the strength of the top picks.

In actual sense a players value at their peak will usually outweigh draft picks provided they would improve the teams best 22 they are being traded to. That is why we see trades of either a number of high draft picks or later draft picks. Finding established stars is not always easy and their development takes time, while getting draft picks is also not easy so they aren't thrown away for mediocre players.

In saying that what is the value of current players up for trade in 2015;

Jack Redden - A good midfielder that hasn't taken the next step but still capable of being in any best 22 in the AFL. Pick 20-30.

Chris Yarran - A speedy HB/HF who is capable of some amazing footy but equally as capable of disappearing during games. Demeanor towards Carlton has also devalued him. Pick 15-35 (market will determine value most as clubs weigh risk/reward ratio).

Adam Treloar - Two firsts is a big call for a young gun midfielder that hasn't been center attention on many occasions but has the making of an elite player. Pick 5-15 and Pick 15-30.

Stay tuned for further valuations.